Monday, June 22, 2020

I don't consider implied volatility, greeks. (I don't understand, never studied them.)

Some put sellers try to avoid assignment, hoping to capture the "free money" by selling puts that are so far out-of-the-money that they'll rarely get assigned/put.  My fear of doing so is the risk of collecting only a $0.25 put premium & watching the underlying go up $5.  I'm getting the impression that a lot of put sellers are satisfied with generating $500 a week in put premiums by selling these puts.  Upon worthless expiration (& no assignment) they consider the $500 as "free money" & "beating the market."  For these put sellers, implied volatility & greeks may be important as they try to avoid put assignments.  And that's not wrong.

But as I sell puts, I demand that I beat the buy & hold market, along with collecting a put premium.  Sometimes I do.  Since 3/23/20's ebb, with the remarkable market appreciation, that's been tough.  I've often wondered, "why sell puts, then calls if all I can do is collect premiums but can't beat the buy & hold market?"

When I sell puts, I know that I'm limited on the upside to only the amount of premium received.  So I sell puts that are barely out-of-the-money & that pay a high premium.  This high premium helps me compete with strong appreciation of the underlying stock.  I'm almost inviting put assignment, understanding that the way to make real money is to own stock.  Yet, owning stock is riskier, so I sell covered calls after I get put.  Selling covered calls provides a hedge versus depreciation. 

In my sell puts, then calls strategy, selecting strike prices for my covered calls depends on whether I'm above or under the water.  If I'm under the water, as I am today with XLE, I'll choose a call strike price that gets me a minimum 10% annualized premium yield.  I can go quite a bit out-of-the-money for this & then I have the opportunity for appreciation.  If I'm above the water, I'll sell covered calls that are barely out-of-the-money to capture a higher premium & defend myself against depreciation.

Today, the first business day after option expiration Friday, I sold covered calls against my XLE when XLE traded at $39.05.  I sold the July 17, 2020 XLE $42 calls & received a $0.76 premium.  Because I'm under the water in my 6 month sell puts, then calls effort with XLE, today's calls are "quite a bit out-of-the-money" & I received my "minimum 10% annualized premium yield" (actually, 28%).  After this trade, with XLE then at $39.11, I had sufficient cash availability to sell 1 XLE cash secured $39 put, expiring 7/17/20 & paying a rich $1.87 premium; a "barely out-of-the-money" put.  

With my sell puts, then calls strategy (attitude?), I just can't see how implied volatilty & greeks can help.               


Tuesday, June 2, 2020

where to "put" cash?

There's an abundance of blogging today on cash-like investments in this low interest rate environment:  FDIC savings accounts, CDs, money market funds, brokerage cash accounts.  Even ETFs that invest in short duration bonds.  As I sell puts, then calls, I'm not interested in cash-like returns.  But if you're inclined to sell cash secured puts, here's an idea:

This afternoon, SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, traded at $306.57.  I looked at the option chain for the June 19, 2020 expiry.  The $306 puts showed a $6.32 Bid & the the $264 puts showed a $0.47 Bid.  Let's consider a $100,000 account, with all the money positioned in the account's core position to secure the selling of puts. With $100,000, I'm able to sell 3 of the $306 puts, or 3 of the $264 puts.

I sell puts rather aggressively.  Just a bit out-of-the-money.  I often don't mind an assignment...getting put to buy SPY at the strike price.  So I'm inclined to sell the $306 puts. 

  • 3 puts require cash security in the core position of 300 X $306 = $91,800.  
  • At the $6.32 Bid, I'd receive a premium of 300 X $6.32 = $1,896.  
  • $1,896/$100,000 = 1.896% over 17 days until 6/19/20's expiration.  
  • That's a 40.7% annualized premium yield.  

The core position of $100,000 + $1,896 also earns the modest interest rate provided by the core position's investment.  But I can hardly call this cash secured put investment cash-like.  There's a great chance of assignment.  More accurately, I call it a stock market investment & an aggressive one.

But the $264 puts are a different story. 

  • 3 puts require cash security in the core position of 300 X $264 = $79,200.  
  • At the $0.47 Bid, I'd receive a premium of 300 X $0.47 = $141.  
  • $141/$100,000 = 14.1 basis points over 17 days until 6/19/20's expiration.  
  • That's a 3.0% annualized premium yield.  Cash-like investors would die for 3% today.

With my choice of the $306 put, SPY needs to drop only 57 cents to get into assignment territory.  With the $264 put, SPY needs to drop over $42 to hit assignment territory.  With the $264 put, a much lower chance of assignment & a higher chance of what often feels like "free money."

Some put selling investors use these way out-of-the-money puts (like the $264s) to serve as a cash alternative.  I still call the $264 put a stock market investment, but a conservative one.

One beauty of selling puts, then calls is an investor's ability to select risk.